Advanced estimates for FY18 GDP released by the Chief Statistics Office indicate growth could slow to 6.5% in FY18.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated to grow at 6.5% during 2017-18 — a four year low. The advance estimate of growth for this fiscal compares with 7.1 % in the previous financial year and the lower growth is on account of slower agricultural and manufacturing output, data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed.
The advance estimate for Gross Value Added (GVA), the more closely watched indicator for growth, is 6.1% for 2017-18, down from 6.6 % in the previous financial year.
The GVA advance estimate for 2017-18 is much lower than the GVA growth 6.7 % estimated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for 2017-18. As per the new methodology followed by the CSO, GDP is calculated by adding product taxes to GVA at basic prices and removing subsidies.
‘Agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is estimated to record a GVA growth of 2.1% during 2017-18 as against 4.9% in the previous year, while manufacturing growth is estimated to be 4.6% this financial year, down from 7.9% last year. GVA growth for construction is estimated at 3.6%, up from 1.7% a year ago, the CSO’s advance estimate showed.
According to Department of Agriculture and Cooperation’s data, the production of food grains during the Kharif season of the agriculture year 2017-18 was 134.67 million tonnes as compared to 138.52 million tonnes during the same period in 2016-17.
The advance estimates for 2017-18 are based on economic indicators for the first 7 or 8 months of this financial year, such as Index of Industrial Production of first seven months of the financial year, financial performance of listed companies in the private corporate sector available up July-September quarter, first advance estimates of crop production, accounts of central and state governments, information on indicators like deposits & credits, passenger and freight earnings of railways, passengers and cargo handled by civil aviation, cargo handled at major sea ports, sales of commercial vehicles etc. available for first eight months of the financial year, the CSO said.
Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue data till November has been included in the GDP’s advance estimate compilation along with non-GST revenue, it said.